The Election Summary
I am not a political blogger. In fact, I make an attempt to consciously avoid politics in my writing. We can argue about our football teams and artificial turf, the merits of the designated hitter in baseball, but when it comes to politics people become intensely passionate to the point of unhealthy – sometimes violent – extremes. There is no give. Gone are the days of I respect your opinion even if I disagree with it. Perhaps those days never really existed? It’s not anything I enjoy or want to be a part of – especially in this current climate where if someone disagrees, the other side is considered some blacklisted sworn enemy. We have lost our sense of healthy debate in the United States, and it has been replaced by an “Us verses Them” mentality. That being said, I will not expound upon my own political views. Those are personal to me, and I do not invite dialog whether people agree with me or not. Politics, like religion, are best kept close to the heart, and when one enters the booth they should vote their conscience. However, I have a few observations regarding the mechanics, not the politics, of this presidential election cycle that I am comfortable in sharing. I’m only attempting to explain the results; not offer political opinions on specific subjects.
How did we get here?
“Being as here is where we was headed, Edith, I don’t see no miracle.” – Archie Bunker, All In The Family, S4 E12.
First, it must be noted that Vice President Kamala Harris’s loss is epic in nature. Epic in the sense that she lost all of the key “battle ground states” that have been mentioned on every news program from every media outlet every day of the campaign to the point of creating collective nausea. When one fails to hit a single target on their list – it can’t be anything but epic failure. However, this statement is not directed specifically at Harris, but at her political party. To use a sports analogy, Harris might be the head coach, but the loss falls on the staff around her. A pre-existing staff at that. Harris had a lot of things working against her, and with the benefit of post-election perspective it is clear to see now she was doomed for failure from the very beginning. A beginning that only started in July.
The reasons for the election loss can be categorized into two distinct silos: time and rural alienation. These are distinct, but interchangeable.
Time
There is a lot of debate whether Biden officially announced – even internally – that he would not seek re-election. However, I believe that there was a general consensus that he would be a single-term president given his age. Biden was allegedly the bridge out of the pandemic to the next generation of leaders. Imagine the collective eye roll among the electorate when he announced he would seek re-election? Immediately that day questions regarding his age became a factor even if it wasn’t mentioned publicly out of respect, politeness, and consideration for a sitting president. My guess is that it didn’t sit well with eligible, cynical, voters who had endured a pandemic and saw it as an overplayed political mantra. Once in power they all want to remain in power. In politics perception is reality, and the reality was here is another politician who has grown comfort in the seat of power. The electorate is already sour and cynical, and this fed into it. They have detested the status quo. The counter argument is, “Well, isn’t Trump also power hungry looking to recapture the oval office?” The answer is of course, yes, all those running for office have the same motivation, but Trump remains outside of the institutional elite. Those same institutional elite within his own party who back him are welcome, and those that oppose are discarded like mulch. He represents a counter culture to the norm; something that the rural population is attracted to. His lone wolf in the fold persona.
All of this is important because as soon as that starter’s pistol was fired time began to waste away. Time that Harris lost and could never recover from. While the Democratic Party politely accepted a declining “Joe” his vice president was forced to play the role of loyal subordinate. They were already linked by virtue of being the current administration, but this cemented Harris’s standing of being prevented from spreading her own wings. Biden was not a lame duck president. Had he been, then Harris would have been permitted to start breaking with the president and carving her own path. Her hands were tied. She had to be loyal to her boss, push the administration’s agenda, even when he appeared physically in decline. Biden’s numbers were already significantly behind Trump’s at that point, but continuing excuses by the party insisted there was a lot of time left to make that up.
Then came the June debate in which Biden fumbled and mumbled through badly. Excuses were given to try and cover up or explain the performance. The damage control apparatus tried to pass it off as, “just a bad cold.” None of this could pass the eye test, and the debate only affirmed everyone’s suspicion. President Biden is declining badly visually and cannot possibly serve a second term. The cover had been pulled off, and even the most loyal Democrats agreed that he needed to step aside. Which he did on July 21 after a lot of arm twisting by the party’s most senior members. There were twenty-four days of wrangling between the debate and the suspension of the Biden campaign. An additional twenty-four days wasted. The shackles were now off Harris to campaign independently, but now she had 107 days to mount a campaign. Her hands were tied behind her back. The fact she was able to mount a comeback from Biden’s subterranean poll numbers to being a virtual dead heat is to her credit, and a small miracle, but history will prove that 107 days does not a successful campaign make.
Rural Alienation
The second component of all this is the flawed game plan of the Democratic Party. It is understandable that the newly crowned Harris Campaign, saddled with limited time, had to focus on what political experts referred to as the “Swing States,” and the “Blue Wall.” Still, as I sat with my coffee every Sunday morning watching the political pundits spin their yarn, I became increasingly convinced that the pundits on the left were running an outdated game plan. They had no answers to the question, “If the economy is improving, if gas prices are down, if the stock market is reaching record highs, why isn’t the Biden Administration getting any credit for it?” It was a valid question that the pundits on the left deflected and could never answer. “These things take time,” was the common response; “they [American people] will.” Time was not something the Left had in abundance of, and it would be used against both Biden and Harris when the Right responded rhetorically, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” The answer, of course, was no, and this was the overwhelming response from the rural population. If the economy and the market are so strong, why wasn’t anyone noticing it on the grocery bill? The American population was done waiting; it felt like they were being put off, and they wanted accountability. This didn’t bode well for either Biden initially, or Harris after July 21.
This was readily seen driving down country roads. I am told by political experts that I live in a heavily Democratic Party strong hold; yet in my very unscientific poll of driving to work or running personal errands I could see the Trump MAGA Lawn signs outnumbered Harris-Waltz by 4:1. When I attended a wedding in late August, up in a very rural and remote part of the state, it was all Trump. Even though the population density of the Democratic Party is concentrated towards the bigger cities this was offset by a strong, and alienated, rural mass – some which exit polls suggest hadn’t voted in several cycles.
With the Left’s metropolitan base neutralized, and an angry, empowered, motivated rural populous feeling ignored by Democrats, the Harris campaign was doomed for failure. First by Biden for squandering time, and then by Democratic campaign managers failing to recognize nobody cared about job reports, lower statistical inflation numbers, or record stock markets. They cared about the gas prices and grocery bills, and the glacier pace those were being reduced. Had it been a football game, the campaign managers had instituted an archaic, plotting, run game moving door to door completely unaware that a forward pass was an option. It was grossly misread and mishandled by a staff who failed to recognize the changing environment. They instituted a game plan that might have worked in a different era, but in the age of Trump nothing what has come before can describe the present. The Republican strategy was brilliant in its simplicity. Appeal to rural voters, and just ask, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Everything else – the border, abortion, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, democracy, were rendered moot. Important from a geopolitical and morality perspective, but irrelevant when it came to personal budgets and grocery bills. With that perspective, the loss by the Democrats – not Harris individually – in the 2024 Presidential Election was an epic failure.
There is going to be a lot of soul-searching within the Democratic Party. It will probably result in a changing of the guard, but it will happen after the fact. If this election was so critical as the Democrats indicated, they grossly mismanaged it. Trump’s rise to power in 2016 and 2024 falls on the Democrats; that’s something they need to take a long look at in the mirror and admit. Harris might be the new generation of leadership, and regroup in 2028 if she chooses to, but it’ll require an equally new and significant change in the advisors around her. People who will throw out the old playbook and write their own.
Further reading:
CNN Exit Polls: https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2024/politics/2020-2016-exit-polls-2024-dg/
BBC Exit Polls: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0lp48ldgyeo
The Hill – 5 Take away: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4975849-trump-harris-2024-presidential-run/#webview=1
NPR – How Trump Won A Second Term: https://www.npr.org/2024/11/06/g-s1-33007/how-trump-won-policies
USA Today – How Kamala Harris Lost The Election: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/06/how-kamala-harris-lost-2024-presidential-election/75687964007/
Reuters – After Harris’s Loss Angry Democrats blame her boss, Biden: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/after-harris-loss-angry-democrats-blame-her-boss-biden-2024-11-06/
MSNBC – What Democrats must learn from Trump’s Victory: https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-wins-election-results-2024-progressive-democrats-rcna178206#webview=1
NBC News – Trump Wins Michigan – Flips Key Battleground For GOP: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-michigan-win-election-2024-race-harris-rcna173813#webview=1